Global Net Oil Export mathematics, part 2: The end of the global net oil export market in 2030 is in fact a best case scenario
(corrected in July 2023)
1) According to licensed professional oil geologist Jeffrey J. Brown in the youtubevideo interview from 2015 by Chris Martenson "Jeffrey Brown: To Understand The Oil Story, You Need To Understand Exports", there was a decline in global net oil exports of 3 million barrels per day (mbd) between 2005 and 2013 (from 46 to 43 mbd). 3 mbd in eight years. It is on average 0,4 mbd per year. Let's assume that the yearly decline is 0,3 mbd per year in the beginning, and 0,5 mbd in the end of this period.
2) There was, according to Brown in the article "The Road To Clean Energy Is Messier Than We Thought" from 14.10.2021, a decline in global net oil exports of 13 mbd between 2013 and 2021, from 43 to 30 mbd. 13 mbd in eight years. It is on average 1,6 mbd per year. It is four times, i.e. a quadrupling of the pace of the decline of net oil exports in 1). Let's assume that the yearly decline is 0,6 mbd per year in the beginning, and 2,6 mbd per year in the end of this period.
3) Brown projects (in the youtube interview 2015 above) a decline in global net oil exports of 30 mbd between 2021 and 2032, down to zero net oil exports (30 mbd is what we had in 2021). 30 mbd in 11 years. It is 2,7 mbd per year. Not in line with the "accelerated decline rate" trend of the previous two paragraphs. This isn't even double the decline rate of 2). It should be four times the decline rate of 2).
4) If one tries to quadruple (in line with the trend in 1) and 2)) the average decline rate per year between 2013 and 2021, i.e. quadruple 1,6 mbd per year, then one gets a decline rate of on average 6,4 mbd per year for the period 2021 to 2032, and then one does not even reach 2032, but the volume of net oil exports goes down to zero already in 4,5 years, i.e. already in May 2026 at the earliest, if we assume that we had 30 mbd in the end of 2021. In this scenario the yearly decline could be 2,6 mbd per year in the beginning, and 10,2 mbd per year in the end of this period. Then we can construct the following model of how much oil exports we have each year:
2021: 30 mbd
2022: 30 mbd - 3,9 mbd = 26,1 mbd
2023: 26,1 mbd - 5,3 mbs = 20, 8 mbd
2024: 20,8 mbd - 6,8 mbd = 14 mbd
2025: 14 mbd - 8,4 mbd = 5,6 mbd
2026: 5,6 mbd - 10,2 = 0
Now, at last the decline goes so fast that 30 mbd of global net oil exports vanishes in 4,5 years, if we shall project out on the future the pace of the rate of acceleration that the decline had 2005-2021. That all net oil export vanishes for all countries in 2032, as Brown stated in the youtubevideo interview above, is thus a best-case scenario. This scenario above, the "2026-scenario", does not even take into account the end of "available net exports", "ANE", which is global net oil exports minus China and India's net oil imports, and if we take that into account, then we might land at 2025 as the end of global net oil exports, and, at worst, at 2024. But this last date feels too radical.
The "2026-scenario" neither takes into account my "ten critical factors" in the article How I calculate the end of the export oil market, factors which could make the decline even steeper.
In the rest of this book, I will try to see if I can validate and confirm the calculations above, to see if they are valid, by other calculations, especially of the remaining diesel exports.
Conclusion: The situation for Sweden
It may therefore very well happen that Sweden loses its last oil to import already 2026, and that I might die of starvation already around 2028-2030, as a best case scenario. It is also possible that the collapse of Sweden begins already 2025, when we get too little oil to import (observe, this is very important: the volume of oil to import will steadily decline with time, not stop all at once), and that the collapse is total already in 2028, not in 2030 as I have said before on this blog.
We import most of our oil in Sweden from Norway, according to the graph on the website "Drivkraft Sverige", therefore Sweden should watch out very carefully for the future of Norwegian oil production. According to Jeffrey J. Brown in the youtubevideo from 2013: "Jeffrey Brown - The Exporters' Dilemma: Rising Domestic Consumption and Flat or Falling Production", Norway loses its last oil exports in 2025, "in a timeframe from about 2022 to 2028" (in this youtubevideo from 2008, 48:45 into the video and further, Brown says that Norway loses its last oil exports "in a 2024 timeframe"). So Sweden has, according to Brown 2013, only about two years left (I write this 2023) of oil imports from Norway, at worst, five at best. The difficulty to find new sellers of oil to buy from, may really screw up the Swedish economy.
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The following are additions lately to the blogpost How I calculate the end of the export oil market, which you may have missed:
(1) India's GDP grew 8,3 % in 2021 (here is a chart of the history of GDP growth in India), and China's GDP grew 8,1 % in 2021 (it grew 6,0 in 2019, here is a chart of the history of GDP growth in China).
(2) observe that China imported around 10 million barrels of oil per day in 2021, and India imported around 4 million barrels per day during the same year, which together make 14 million barrels per day of oil import. Add to this figure the 18 million barrels per day of increase in oil consumption and thus oil imports during 2021 and 2036, and you have 32 million barrels per day of oil imports only in China and India, which is more than there was on the export market 2021. This was why I said that China and India "would quickly eat up what remains of the export oil market as early as around 2030", which means that there will not be any export oil left to other countries than China and India at around 2030, which also was the conclusion that Jeffrey J. Brown came to in his calculations, referred to above.
Observe also that the rest of the world is also growing their oil consumption and their GDP, World gdp growth rate for 2021 was 5.80%, which eats more and more of the volume of export oil available to the world.
Note also that according to Steve St. Angelo at SrsRocco Report, in the youtubevideo "Steve St. Angelo: The Financial World is One Giant Ponzi Scheme" 3 weeks ago, current world oil production today declines with 10 % a year, if no new oil is added, and have to be replaced by a Russia in oil every year. This is possible now, but it can only continue for so long. Note also that oil exports decline at a far faster rate than the decline in oil production alone (see the Wikipedia-article "Export Land Model"). This is why my calculations above are a best case scenario. So what happens when we cannot offset the declines every year with new Russias? What happens to export oil decline when world oil production declines 10 % a year, which it will do at some point in time?
