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"The world relies heavily on three nations for crude: the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Together, they account for nearly 45% of global total oil supply."
In the same article Javier Blas states that Saudi Arabia is near its oil production peak. At most the Saudis can raise their production with 2 mbd (million barrels per day), according to the Saudi Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman.
When you consider that US oil production (all liquids) probably peaked in 2019, and has declined ever since, and that the shale oil bubble soon will burst, then we are really in an energy crisis, because of one fact, which is a little hard to find if you google for it, but which is mentioned in a comment to the blogpost "$60 – $65 EMERGING MID-CYCLE PRICE FOR WTI" by Art Berman on his blog "artberman.com." 28.2.2018:
"A recent HSBC report found that, already today, somewhere between 60–80% of conventional oil fields are in terminal decline. It estimated that by 2040 the world would need to find four Saudi Arabia’s (the largest oil supplier) worth of additional oil just to maintain current rates of supply and more than double that to meet 2040 projected demand."
Quote from the HSBC report (a bank report*, see the Wikipedia-article of the bank here) itself: "81% of world liquids production is already in decline (excluding future redevelopments)."
Why do I say that we are in an energy crisis? Well, if the top producers only can raise production by 2 mbd of conventional oil until 2030, and we lose ~30 mbd of conventional oil between 2017 and 2030, then we are minus 28 mbd of conventional oil in 2030. And remember also what I have calculated regarding oil exports in
this blogpost. The abovementioned Bank report is about a decline of total oil production. According to oil geologist Jeffrey J. Brown and the Export Land Model, the volume of total oil exports falls even more rapidly than oil production itself, and its decline rate accelerates.
"A new report suggests that over the next 30 years, at least 80 percent of the oil industry will be wiped out."
* written by four scientists, of which the first is Kim Fustier. She "is a Director in HSBC's Energy Research team based in London. She focuses on European integrated oil companies and energy transition issues, and has written extensively about the oil majors’ decarbonisation challenges. She has covered the oil & gas sector for 15 years and has previously worked in Equity Research at several international investment banks including Credit Suisse and J.P. Morgan, and in Energy & Utilities M&A at Morgan Stanley."
